The World Health Organization has released a list of over 30 pathogens that could potentially cause the next pandemic. Among the most dangerous are the H5N1 bird flu, which is currently spreading in the US and feared to mutate for human-to-human transmission, and the mosquito-borne Dengue fever, also spreading at unprecedented levels in the US. Monkeypox, which caused a global epidemic in 2022, is on the list as well, due to a deadlier and more infectious strain currently circulating in Africa.
More than half of the pathogens listed are new compared to the 2017 list. Notable entries include Hantavirus, the mosquito-borne West Nile Virus, influenza, and COVID-19. The list also includes smallpox, despite its eradication, due to concerns over accidental release from labs and the lack of immunity in the current population. Additionally, the rodent-borne Lassa fever, known for causing severe bleeding and seizures, is also listed.
The list was compiled by 200 scientists from over 50 countries who reviewed a shortlist of 1,600 viruses and bacteria. Those identified as having “pandemic potential” are highly transmissible, virulent, and currently lack vaccines or treatments.
Since the lists from 2017 and 2018, which included about a dozen pathogens, researchers have expanded the list due to increased opportunities for diseases to spread from animals to humans and between different regions. Factors such as urbanization, deforestation, and increased international travel have heightened contact between wildlife and humans, providing new avenues for disease transmission. Climate change is also a concern, as it may facilitate the spread of diseases into new areas.
Dr. Ana Maria Henao Restrepo, who led the report, told Nature, “The prioritization process helps identify critical knowledge gaps that need to be addressed urgently.”
The report also includes five bacteria, such as cholera, which causes severe gastrointestinal distress, and Yersinia pestis, the bacterium responsible for the plague. The bat-borne Nipah virus, which can cause severe brain swelling, remains on the list.
While many of these diseases have only sporadic cases so far, researchers warn that mutations could enhance their ability to spread among humans, potentially triggering outbreaks. Most of the diseases are transmitted by ticks, bats, mosquitoes, rodents, or respiratory droplets. For a virus or bacteria to become a pandemic, it must spread between humans, be detected globally, and cause illness.
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