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Coronavirus: A periodic growth

Coronavirus

Coronavirus

It has been almost six months since the first case of Corona virus was reported in India. Its biggest cities still remain at the epicenter of the pandemic with fluctuating records of positive cases, that might have changed overtime. The multiplication of cases has been slowing down, but these cities still experience a heavy burden of daily cases.

Major comparison of Indian cities has been based on district-level data that had been released by state governments. However, this sort of information could sometimes be misleading about cities.

For example, in Mumbai, Thane district had been registering the highest number of cases per day, but the district includes six municipal corporations, each of them cities in their own right.

This analysis has been based on city-level data compiled from respective official city websites and official Twitter handles, except where only district data is available.

Delhi’s data has been collected for the whole state. Reported lately, as of August 1, Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai, India’s three worst-affected cities, have over one lakh cases each day and are still some distance from the other big cities; second-placed and Mumbai still had over twice as many cases as fourth-placed Bengaluru.

It has reportedly been noticed that over the last month, Bengaluru and Pune have replaced Delhi and Chennai to become the worst affected cities. However, almost all of the top five worst-hit cities are still reporting more than 1,000 cases every day.

Delhi by itself has been reporting more than 1,000 cases each day since May 28, and the situation is only marginally better in Mumbai. As of late, Bengaluru and Pune continue to be in surge mode, while Chennai appears to be experiencing a minor reduction in cases compared to early July. According to latest reports, cases in Bengaluru, cases are doubling every 17 days.

The concern regarding cases has been major as they have been growing the fastest in Bengaluru, but the growth rate has broadly slowed down in all the worst affected big cities except for Kolkata, which has seen this indicator swing up and down over the last few weeks.

There has been a noticeably wide and sometimes unexplained variation in death rates. While Ahmedabad continued to register the highest deaths proportionate to cases, Guwahati’s numbers are far lower than seems plausible. Ahmedabad registered a case fatality rate of 6.19 per cent, while the same in Guwahati is 0.29 per cent. (Source : indiatoday.in)

With newer cases increasing in suburban cities such as Nashik, and slowing down heavily in Ahmedabad, India could soon see some re-aligning of its worst-affected cities. Nevertheless, in metros, such as Delhi and Mumbai that have seen the brunt of the outbreak since April, the worst is far from over yet.

Growth of the novel coronavirus cases has been seen to have slowed down in major cities, but they still are experiencing a kick-off of daily cases. There has been some wide and sometimes inexplicable variation in death rates.

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